U.S. shale oil output should continue to grow rapidly before peaking near 2030 at 14.5M bbl/day from ~8M bbl/day currently, according to a bullish new analysis from research firm Rystad Energy.
Despite slowing growth and spending cuts in the U.S. energy sector, Rystad sees the U.S. leading global production growth for years to come with gains in technology, efficiency and plenty of shale acreage yet to be drilled.
The Permian Basin would lead the way with oil production growth spiking from 4.4M bbl/day to 7.5M.
If the U.S. oil benchmark price falls to closer to $45/bbl in the years ahead – as opposed to the expected $55 – than shale oil output could peak at a more modest 11.5M bbl/day, according to Rystad.
Pioneer Natural Resources CEO Scott Sheffield said this week that he sees Permian production topping out at 8M bbl/day in the next 8-9 years, adding 1M bbl/day this year before falling to 600K-700K bbl/day growth in 2020.